Premium Top 5 Picks Recap 8/15
🚀 3-2 TOP 5 RECAP: Three Winners Across MLB, WNBA & CFL
Saturday's August 15 card is in the books, and MoonPicks98 finished 3-2 across our Top 5 Plays, cashing our first three selections before dropping the final two.
It was a card that covered four different sports — MLB, WNBA, CFL and UFC — and showed exactly why we're willing to look beyond one league when searching for matchups we believe offer value.
📊 August 15 Results
✅ Cam Schlittler Under 1.5 Earned Runs (-106) — WIN
✅ Minnesota Lynx Moneyline (-130) — WIN
✅ Edmonton Elks -3.5 (-105) — WIN
❌ Barboza vs. Ribovics Over 1.5 Rounds (-140) — LOSS
❌ Detroit Tigers Moneyline (-133) — LOSS
Final Record: 3-2
Here's what we saw before the games — and what happened once the action started.
⚾ #1 Cam Schlittler Under 1.5 Earned Runs (-106) — WIN ✅
This was also our Free Pick of the Day, and Schlittler delivered.
Our handicap centered on his ability to limit damage rather than whether the Yankees could actually win the game. That distinction ended up being important.
Schlittler pitched 5⅓ innings, allowed four hits and just one earned run while striking out seven. The Yankees eventually lost 4-1, but Toronto did most of its damage after Schlittler left the game.
That's precisely why we liked the player prop instead of simply betting New York.
We needed Schlittler to allow one earned run or fewer.
He allowed exactly one.
💰 UNDER 1.5 ER (-106) — CASHED
Sometimes isolating one favorable component of a matchup gives us a better opportunity than trying to predict the entire game's outcome.
🏀 #2 Minnesota Lynx Moneyline (-130) — WIN ✅
Minnesota was one of our favorite team sides of the day.
The Lynx entered Saturday as the WNBA's first-place team at 28-7, facing a very good Las Vegas squad in what looked like a potential playoff preview.
Our reasoning was straightforward: if we're getting one of the league's best teams at a manageable moneyline price, we're willing to trust them to simply win the game rather than complicating things with a spread.
Minnesota rewarded that approach.
FINAL: Lynx 92, Aces 87.
Las Vegas kept it competitive, but Minnesota did what elite teams are supposed to do and finished the job.
💰 Minnesota ML (-130) — CASHED
That put us 2-0 to start the card.
🏈 #3 Edmonton Elks -3.5 (-105) — WIN ✅
Our third play took us north of the border to the CFL.
We liked Edmonton laying only 3.5 points rather than paying the much steeper price that came with backing the Elks outright.
That's an important part of our approach.
Finding the team is only half the battle. Finding the right way to bet that team matters just as much.
At -105, Edmonton -3.5 gave us an attractive price while asking the Elks to win by more than a field goal.
They got the job done, giving us our third consecutive winner and moving the Top 5 to a perfect 3-0 through the first three selections.
💰 Edmonton -3.5 (-105) — CASHED
🥊 #4 Barboza vs. Ribovics Over 1.5 Rounds (-140) — LOSS ❌
This was the painful one.
Rather than laying a massive moneyline price on Esteban Ribovics, we attacked the fight through the round total.
Our thesis was that veteran Edson Barboza's experience and striking ability could help him survive the early pressure, allowing the fight to get beyond the 1.5-round mark.
The price reached our absolute ceiling of -140, but we still believed the probability justified the wager.
Unfortunately, Ribovics had other plans.
He overwhelmed Barboza and scored the TKO at 1:32 of Round 2.
That meant the fight ended before the Over 1.5 threshold.
❌ Over 1.5 Rounds (-140) — LOSS
It was also an emotional ending beyond the betting result, as the 40-year-old Barboza announced his retirement following the fight.
Our read that Ribovics would be the more dangerous fighter was correct. Where we missed was expecting Barboza to survive long enough to cash the total. It was close it ended early in the 2nd round just missing the 2:30 mark.
That's an important distinction when reviewing a loss.
⚾ #5 Detroit Tigers Moneyline (-133) — LOSS ❌
Our final selection was Detroit at home against the Chicago White Sox.
The biggest reason for our interest was the pitching setup and home-field price. Detroit starter Troy Melton entered with a 1.86 ERA across 13 starts and hadn't allowed a run in three consecutive outings, giving us reason to believe Detroit could keep Chicago's offense under control early.
And this one was there for the taking.
Detroit repeatedly battled Chicago but couldn't get over the hump.
The game was tied multiple times before Andrew Benintendi drove home the eventual winning run in the seventh, helping Chicago escape with a 4-3 victory.
❌ Detroit ML (-133) — LOSS
This wasn't a blowout or a handicap that was dead from the beginning. It was essentially a one-run coin flip that landed on the wrong side.
Those games are going to happen.
📈 FINAL RESULTS: 3-2
Three winners. Two losses.
More importantly, our three strongest ranked selections all delivered:
There's always temptation after starting 3-0 to look at the two late losses and think about what could have been.
We're looking at it differently.
We identified three strong opportunities across three completely different markets and cashed all three.
We also review the losses.
The UFC total was beaten by Ribovics' aggression and finishing ability. Detroit was a competitive one-run game that simply didn't fall our way.
That's sports betting.
The objective isn't to pretend every pick is going to win. It's to continue identifying prices and matchups where we believe the probability is better than what the market is offering — and then evaluate the process regardless of the outcome.
🌙 Another Free Pick Winner!
There's one result we're especially happy to deliver:
Our Free Pick cashed again.
Cam Schlittler Under 1.5 Earned Runs was available around -106, and he delivered exactly what our handicap called for by allowing only one earned run.
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We're already moving on to the next board, looking for the next opportunity.
3-2 is in the books.
Now it's back to work.
🚀🌙 LET'S ROCKET THAT BANKROLL TO THE MOON!
Odds are subject to change. Past performance does not guarantee future results. 21+. Bet responsibly.
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