Premium Top 5 Recap 8/17
The Betting Gods Strike Back: MoonPicks98 Goes 1–4 After an 8–2 Weekend
After closing the weekend with an outstanding 8–2 record, Monday reminded us just how quickly the betting gods can strike back.
Our August 17 Top 5 Premium card finished 1–4. Three MLB plays were decided by frustrating late-game developments or missed statistical marks, while our only winner came from the sport that continues to carry the momentum for MoonPicks98: the WNBA.
Golden State’s spread victory delivered our seventh consecutive WNBA win—and it came at plus money.
Atlanta Braves Moneyline (-122): Loss
We backed Atlanta because of its strong road record and the apparent starting-pitching advantage with Martín Pérez facing Bailey Ober. Unfortunately, that advantage disappeared almost immediately.
Following a rain delay, Pérez surrendered four runs in the bottom of the first inning. Josh Bell drove in two with a ground-rule double before Royce Lewis and Kody Clemens added RBI singles.
Pérez and the Atlanta bullpen held Minnesota scoreless over the final seven innings, but the Braves never completely recovered. Ronald Acuña Jr. delivered a two-run single in the fifth, but that was Atlanta’s only scoring in a 4–2 loss.
The handicap was reasonable, but the four-run opening inning put the bet in a hole it could not escape.
Philadelphia Phillies -1.5 (-113): Loss
This may have been the most frustrating result on the card.
Philadelphia held a 6–4 advantage entering the top of the ninth inning. We needed the Phillies to preserve that two-run margin to cover the -1.5 run line.
Instead, Miami scored once in the ninth, cutting the lead to 6–5. Philadelphia still won the game, but the late run cost us the wager.
The Phillies had several opportunities to create more breathing room and finished with enough offense to win. Cristopher Sánchez also delivered six solid innings and became MLB’s first 16-game winner. But for betting purposes, all that mattered was the final margin.
Philadelphia won by one, meaning the Phillies got us again on the run line. The Phillies held on for a 6–5 victory, but our -1.5 ticket did not cash.
St. Louis Cardinals Moneyline (-111): Loss
St. Louis had been on an impressive run, and the Cardinals had already cost us a few bets when we faded them during the previous week. This time, we decided to ride the momentum and back them.
For most of the night, that decision appeared ready to pay off.
The Cardinals entered the bottom of the ninth with a 5–4 lead. They were three outs away from cashing our moneyline ticket, but Dane Myers hit a pinch-hit home run to tie the game.
St. Louis failed to score in the top of the 10th. Elly De La Cruz then delivered his first career walk-off hit—an RBI double that gave Cincinnati a 6–5 victory.
The Cardinals had the lead late, but the bullpen could not finish the job. Cincinnati’s ninth-inning comeback and 10th-inning walk-off turned another promising ticket into a loss.
Golden State Valkyries -6.5 (+100): Win
The WNBA continues to be the brightest part of our current betting run.
Golden State defeated Dallas 78–70, covering the 6.5-point spread and delivering our only win of the Top 5 card. Even better, we secured the play at +100.
The Valkyries created separation with a dominant second quarter, building a 44–28 halftime advantage. Dallas made a late push and outscored Golden State 28–12 in the fourth quarter, but the Valkyries maintained enough of their lead to cover by 1.5 points.
Gabby Williams led Golden State with 23 points, while Veronica Burton added 16 points and five assists. The victory also secured a playoff berth for the Valkyries. Golden State won 78–70, improving to 25–9.
Most importantly for MoonPicks98, this was our seventh consecutive WNBA win. We continue to find strong value in that market, and cashing this one at plus money made it the clear highlight of Monday’s card.
Nolan McLean Over 5.5 Strikeouts (-141): Loss
McLean pitched well enough to help the Mets defeat San Diego 2–1, but he did not produce the strikeout total we needed.
He completed six innings and allowed only one earned run, but he recorded just three strikeouts—three short of the six required to cash the over.
McLean’s outing was unusual. Seven consecutive Padres reached base early, but New York’s defense threw out three runners at home plate during the first two innings. Those defensive plays helped McLean survive and eventually earn the victory, but his four walks and lack of consistent swing-and-miss production prevented him from reaching the prop.
McLean finished with six innings, six hits, four walks and three strikeouts. The Mets won, but his three-strikeout performance left our over 5.5 ticket well short.
Final Results
Atlanta Braves ML (-122): Loss
Philadelphia Phillies -1.5 (-113): Loss
St. Louis Cardinals ML (-111): Loss
Golden State Valkyries -6.5 (+100): Win
Nolan McLean over 5.5 strikeouts (-141): Loss
Final record: 1–4
If each selection was played for one unit, the card produced a net result of -3 units.
From 8–2 to 1–4: That’s Sports Betting
After an 8–2 weekend, we wanted to carry that momentum into Monday. Instead, the card delivered nearly every frustrating scenario a bettor can experience.
The Phillies won but failed to cover after surrendering a ninth-inning run. The Cardinals led entering the ninth before losing in extra innings. McLean earned a pitching win but finished far below his strikeout prop. Atlanta settled down after the first inning, but the early damage was already too much.
The WNBA was the lone bright spot—and it continues to shine. Seven consecutive wins, with the latest coming at plus money, is a run worth recognizing.
We never hide the losses or pretend every night will be profitable. The goal is to evaluate every result honestly, learn from the card and remain disciplined. One difficult Monday does not erase an 8–2 weekend, just as one great weekend does not eliminate the risk of the next slate.
The betting gods struck back this time. We will review the data, trust the process and get ready for the next opportunity.
Always bet responsibly and never chase losses.
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